It's been WAY too long since we headed out west together for our weekly gambling column, but considering there hasn't been a college football game in like five months I figured you'd understand. Still, if the Apple Store is going to bump our rating up for "simulated gambling" the least we can do is give you some...simulated gambling. The official 2012 over/unders won't come out until mid-June, but with a lot of offshore books taking early action let's look at the best and worst chances in each BCS conference.
ACC
Best Bet to Go Over: Florida State (9.5). I know, I know...
every year is supposed to be the year the Seminoles or the Hurricanes "are back." Every year they fail to meet expectations. I'm only picking them because they've only released over/under totals for like three ACC teams, they get Clemson and Florida at home, and their defense is going to be disgusting. Plus, they'll have all those Big 12 suitors to impress.
Best Bet to Go Under: Virginia Tech (9.5). We can pretty much pencil Virginia Tech in for eight or nine wins every season right? We sure as hell can't give them ten.
Big East
Best Bet to Go Over: Awkward silence.
Best Bet to Go Under: More silence. There aren't any Big East over/unders out yet...presumably because Las Vegas forgot the Big East exists. I guess if they let you bet on the league having 2.5 years left the under would be the smart bet, but that's about it.
Big Ten
Best Bet to Go Over: Wisconsin (8.5). The Badgers QB "plug and play" worked with Russell Wilson, so I'm counting on it working with Danny O'Brien too. Montee Ball has to be worth eight wins by himself, and a freakishly easy out of conference schedule bumps the Badgers up to nine by early November.
Best Bet to Go Under: Ohio State (8.5). The Buckeyes went 6-7 and got slapped with NCAA sanctions, now they're suddenly a nine win team because Urban Meyer's gonna stroll the sidelines in a sweet Nike windbreaker? I don't think so. Thanks for the free money.
Big 12
Best Bet to Go Over: Oklahoma (9.5). The Sooners will improve on last year's injury-raddled disappointment with Landry Jones and a solid defense, and they've pretty much proven they're good for 10 wins a year. Baylor and Oklahoma State falling back to earth won't hurt either.
Best Bet to Go Under: West Virginia (8.5). I watched a LOT of West Virginia football last year, and other than their second half explosion in the Orange Bowl I didn't see anything that leads me to believe they'll be a .500 team in the Big 12. I need to see the Mountaineers prove they can maintain the level of play needed to win in a tougher conference, and considering they couldn't even stay focused enough to maintain that level in the Big East I don't have high hopes for this campaign.
Pac 12
Best Bet to Go Over: Oregon (9.5). Oregon could lose their entire offense every year and I'd still pick them to win 10 games. De'Anthony Thomas shines as a super sophomore and the Ducks race to
at least 11 wins (a watered down out of conference schedule doesn't hurt).
Best Bet to Go Under: USC (9.5). The Trojans were 10-2 last year and are a legitimate BCS title contender this season, but they're just starting to feel the effects of the scholarships they lost. Let's see how well the play with a bullseye and pressure on them again before we hand them the Pac 12.
SEC
Best Bet to Go Over: Florida (7.5). I'm not making any BCS plans for the Gators, but they have to get to at least eight wins right? The SEC East still sucks right? Two consecutive seasons of 7-6 or worse and Will Muschamp is out of a job.
Best Bet to Go Under: LSU (10.5). Everybody in Baton Rouge calm the hell down. I'm not saying the Tigers won't win the SEC West or have a shot at a national title, I'm just saying it's
really hard to win 11 or 12 games so you probably want your money on the other side of 10.5...you know, considering your projected starting QB goes to Notre Dame now.
Mortal Lock of the Week
Notre Dame (8.5), Under: Speaking of Notre Dame...who the hell is picking the Irish to win nine games or more next year? Is this line a joke? The Irish have the toughest schedule in FBS this season. They have USC, Oklahoma, Stanford, Miami, Michigan, BYU and Michigan State on the slate this year. Assuming they go undefeated against the five weaker teams on their schedule (never a given with the Irish), they need to go 4-3 against those opponents to finish with nine wins. I can see them beating BYU and....that's about it. Get your money down before Tommy Rees beats up another cop and they move this thing down to six.
We'll be back with more weekly Wager Wednesday posts when the season kicks off. Until then we'll try to help you get your fix with some futures as they slowly roll out over the summer.